Global gold prices strengthened again during Monday’s trading session (October 19, 2026), approaching the $4,190 per troy ounce mark following downward pressure the previous week. At the time of writing, spot gold was up 0.5% at $4,178.55 per troy ounce. This rally was driven by easing investor concerns regarding a potential interest rate hike in the United States this October, following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh—comments interpreted as providing the central bank room to keep rates steady at next week’s meeting.
Warsh’s statement led market participants to lower the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike to less than 17%. Previously, U.S. inflation data—which came in higher than expected—had fueled expectations of a rate hike and strengthened the U.S. dollar. However, Warsh’s stance—offering no signal of imminent policy tightening—helped alleviate that pressure. This development served as a positive catalyst for gold, as higher interest rates typically make yield-bearing assets, such as bonds, more attractive than precious metals, which offer no yield.
Gold also found support from a decline in U.S. technology stocks, fueled by growing investor anxiety over the scale of investments in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. The pressure on tech stocks prompted some investors to seek alternative, perceived safer investments. Simultaneously, rising demand for U.S. government bonds pushed bond prices higher and yields lower. This decline in yields further eased pressure on gold, while a slight weakening of the U.S. dollar provided additional room for the price of the precious metal to climb higher.
In terms of investment demand, gold continues to receive solid support, despite having experienced a sharp decline since the onset of the conflict between the United States and Iran in late February. The price of gold remains approximately 20% lower than it was before the conflict, yet it has managed to hold above the psychological level of US$4,000 per troy ounce since August. Investor interest in gold is also evident in the 13 consecutive weeks of growth in holdings within gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This trend suggests that some investors continue to view gold as a viable option for navigating global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Looking ahead, gold could potentially continue its recovery, provided that the US dollar and bond yields remain weak and the Federal Reserve maintains current interest rates during its October 27–28 meeting. From a psychological standpoint, the US$4,190 to US$4,200 range is a critical area to watch for gauging the strength of any further upward movement. However, the risk of a correction persists, as investors still anticipate the possibility of an interest rate hike before the end of the year. With market sentiment beginning to improve, the key question now is whether gold can break through the US$4,200 mark or if it will once again be held back by concerns regarding inflation in the United States.