Oil prices climbed by approximately 1% in Wednesday’s trading (November 11), recovering from a two-month low. The rebound followed a statement from Iran’s security chief, who asserted that Tehran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country—signaling that significant obstacles remain in efforts to resolve the conflict.
This statement is particularly notable given that Washington has positioned the nuclear issue as a core component of its preliminary talks with Iran. The market has begun to temper expectations for any near-term de-escalation, especially after an Iranian security official previously denied that negotiations with the U.S. were even underway.
Risks in the Strait of Hormuz have also provided support for oil prices. Throughout October, 37 vessels were reportedly attacked—the highest monthly tally since the conflict began. One tanker was attacked off the coast of Oman, while two others reportedly caught fire after striking naval mines in an unauthorized shipping lane.
Nevertheless, oil prices remain well below their levels from earlier in the month. Since the start of November, Brent and WTI have fallen by approximately 21% and 17%, respectively—a decline driven by earlier optimism that the U.S.-Iran conflict might soon conclude, potentially normalizing oil flows from the Middle East.
On the supply side, pressure persists due to rising U.S. crude inventories; the American Petroleum Institute reported an increase of roughly 9 million barrels in U.S. crude stocks over the past week. Meanwhile, in Russia, oil processing capacity has reportedly dropped by about 30% since late October following Ukrainian drone strikes.
Newsmaker Analysis: Oil prices are currently caught in a tug-of-war between hopes for diplomacy and the risk of supply disruptions. Should U.S.-Iran negotiations hit further roadblocks and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue, oil prices could find support from a geopolitical risk premium. Conversely, high U.S. inventory levels and the prospect of improved oil flows remain factors that will likely cap any further gains. (arl)
Source: Newsmaker.id