Private-sector business activity in the United States (US) continued to grow in October 2026, though the overall pace of expansion slowed compared to the previous month. According to preliminary data released by S&P Global on Friday (October 23, 2026), both the US manufacturing and services sectors remain in expansion territory. This reflects the resilience of economic activity amid global uncertainty, as investors increasingly focus on the outlook for economic growth and the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s (The Fed) monetary policy.
The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 56.0 in October, slightly higher than the 55.9 recorded in September. This figure also exceeded market expectations, which had projected an index level of 55.6. Meanwhile, the Services PMI stood at 57.9—in line with analysts' forecasts—though this represents a slowdown from the 58.8 recorded in September. Both indicators remain above the 50-point threshold, signaling that business activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors continues to expand.
Conversely, the US Composite PMI, which tracks overall activity across both the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 57.6 in October from 58.4 the previous month. This decline suggests that the momentum of business activity has begun to ease, even while remaining at a relatively strong level of expansion. The divergence in performance between the two sectors indicates that manufacturing activity has managed to sustain growth, whereas the services sector has experienced a slowdown. These developments are being closely monitored by the market as it assesses the resilience of the US economy ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
Observers note that the continued expansionary trend in US PMI data could provide support for the US dollar, as it reflects a still-solid level of economic activity. However, a slowdown in the services sector and the Composite PMI point to a potential moderation in growth that warrants attention. If economic resilience is accompanied by persistent inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve may maintain a tight monetary policy for longer. Conversely, should the slowdown in business activity become more widespread, expectations for a loosening of policy could resurface. Therefore, upcoming economic indicators will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the US dollar, bond yields, and global financial market sentiment.