Global oil prices weakened during trading on Monday (October 19, 2026), though they managed to recover some of the losses seen in the previous session. The downward pressure on oil prices emerged after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to suspend a significant portion of sanctions against Russia and scrapped planned tariffs on countries that import Russian oil. This policy shift has fueled expectations that global oil supplies could increase, amid ongoing uncertainty in the energy market.
Brent crude fell 1.5% to $108.22 per barrel as of 09:15 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped 0.6% to $100.85 per barrel. This decline follows a nearly 5% surge in oil prices over the previous week, driven by global supply disruptions—particularly those originating from the Middle East. Despite this correction, oil prices remain supported by concerns regarding the stability of global energy distribution.
On the demand side, economic data from China showed third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth that slightly exceeded market expectations. As the world’s largest oil importer, China’s economic health serves as a key indicator for the global energy consumption outlook. Furthermore, oil processing activity at Chinese refineries rose for the third consecutive month through September, largely spurred by an increase in the export of refined petroleum products. However, these positive developments have not been strong enough to offset the downward pressure on prices resulting from the change in U.S. policy toward Russia.
Meanwhile, Trump’s decision to ease sanctions on Russia has become a primary focus for market participants. The policy, announced on Friday, was unveiled just days before several sanctions were set to take effect. Trump also exempted countries that import Russian oil from the planned imposition of additional tariffs. According to him, this move is part of an effort to safeguard U.S. national interests while creating space for diplomacy to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The decision follows a diesel import agreement between the U.S. and Russia, signed just a week earlier. Trump also highlighted Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities as a factor contributing to the rise in global fuel prices. In a social media post over the weekend, Trump stated that his administration is working toward a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and is seeking to avoid policies that might cause Moscow to withdraw from the negotiation process.
The softening of global oil prices reflects a shift in market sentiment following the U.S. decision to potentially ease trade barriers on Russian energy. This policy could facilitate the flow of Russian oil to international markets, thereby alleviating concerns regarding global supply constraints.
However, the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East remains a key factor that could prevent a sharper decline in oil prices. As long as energy distribution routes in that region remain unstable, oil prices are likely to stay volatile.
In the short term, Brent crude could face downward pressure if the market becomes increasingly confident that Russian oil exports will proceed smoothly. Conversely, an escalation in geopolitical tensions or disruptions to energy distribution could drive oil prices back up. Ultimately, the future direction of oil prices will depend heavily on diplomatic developments between Russia and Ukraine, stability in the Middle East, and the outlook for energy demand from China.