Global oil prices strengthened during trading on Friday (October 30, 2026), fueled by growing concerns that the United States might launch further military strikes against Iran following the midterm elections on November 3. Brent crude for December delivery rose 0.5% to US$111.44 per barrel as of 8:20 a.m. Singapore time, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 0.7% to US$102.73 per barrel. This uptick follows reports that a senior U.S. military commander briefed President Donald Trump on various military operational options against Tehran.
Tensions have escalated as the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, asserted that his country would not compromise its core interests in negotiations aimed at ending the conflict. This statement came after Iran confirmed receipt of a letter from U.S. Vice President JD Vance, part of an effort to revive peace talks. However, the absence of an agreement to halt the war has left investors factoring in the risk of oil supply disruptions. The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz also remains a point of concern, following reports of attacks on tankers transiting the area.
Amidst this geopolitical uncertainty, Brent crude prices have risen by approximately 12% throughout October, reaching their highest level in six months. Although the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has begun to recover, low global inventories and limited supplies of refined products continue to support prices. Regional security concerns are impacting energy industry operations, while developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict serve as an additional factor monitored by market participants. These conditions indicate that the recovery in oil distribution has not yet fully eliminated the risk of rising global energy prices. Looking ahead, the trajectory of oil prices will be heavily influenced by Washington’s decisions regarding Iran following the U.S. midterm elections. Should military operations resume and disrupt energy shipping routes, Brent crude could see further gains. Conversely, successful diplomacy and the reaching of an agreement to halt the conflict could reduce the geopolitical risk premium, potentially leading to a price correction. For the global economy, sustained high oil prices could intensify inflationary pressures, drive up production costs, and prompt central banks to exercise greater caution in determining the direction of interest rates.