Solid Gold Berjangka – U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a more open stance toward resolving the conflict with Iran. He indicated that the likelihood of a major military strike against Tehran remains relatively low, provided that negotiations continue to show progress—a sentiment that has helped ease market concerns regarding an escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
This statement has exerted downward pressure on oil prices, with Brent crude falling back below US$100 per barrel during Monday’s trading. The market has begun to trim the geopolitical risk premium, fueled by growing optimism that Washington and Tehran may pursue a diplomatic path.
Nevertheless, tensions have not entirely subsided. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested that a breakthrough in negotiations remains difficult to achieve, as several of Iran’s demands are considered unacceptable by Washington.
Security risks also remain elevated following reports of an explosion on Qeshm Island and various incidents involving vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. As one of the world’s primary energy trade arteries, any security disruption in this area could reignite concerns over supply.
Diplomatic efforts are intensifying, with President Trump scheduled to meet with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani at the White House. Qatar, alongside several other Gulf states, is acting as a mediator to prevent further escalation and maintain regional stability.
Should U.S.-Iran talks continue to progress, oil prices may face further downward pressure as the geopolitical risk premium diminishes. Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations—or fresh attacks on energy infrastructure—could drive oil prices higher once again, intensifying global inflationary pressures. (srh)