Oil prices continued to fall in trading on Monday (November 9) as optimism grew regarding diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude dropped as much as 4.8% to below US$94 per barrel, following its largest weekly decline since April 2020.
Hopes for a resolution to the conflict rose after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that it was highly unlikely Washington would launch a major attack on Iran, provided that negotiations show progress. However, Trump emphasized that Iran must still be willing to accept a robust agreement concerning nuclear issues and regional security.
Nevertheless, geopolitical risks have not entirely subsided. Reports of an attack on Qeshm Island, an incident involving a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, and a Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco’s offices in Riyadh have reignited concerns regarding the security of global oil supply routes.
Supplies from the Persian Gulf region are also beginning to recover. OPEC production is reportedly back to approximately 88% of pre-war levels, while rising exports from the region have made oil prices increasingly sensitive to news pointing toward a de-escalation of the conflict.
Investors are now looking ahead to President Trump’s meeting with the Prime Minister of Qatar, as well as energy market reports from the EIA, OPEC, and the IEA, which are due throughout the week. Progress in diplomacy could push prices even lower, while a failure in negotiations—or a new escalation—could trigger another surge in oil prices.