Solid Gold Berjangka – The EUR/USD pair weakened during the European trading session on Thursday (October 29), trading below 1.1150—nearing its lowest level since May 2025. Pressure on the euro persists, though movements remain somewhat contained ahead of the release of key U.S. economic data and a policy decision from the European Central Bank (ECB).
Investors are awaiting the preliminary U.S. GDP report for the third quarter and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, both of which will provide vital clues regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction. These data points have the potential to significantly influence the U.S. dollar and dictate the short-term trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.
Market attention will subsequently shift to the ECB’s decision. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while potentially signaling a hawkish stance—hinting at a possible 25-basis-point hike in December. The policy statement and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde will be the primary focus for market participants.
Within the Eurozone, concerns over France’s deteriorating debt levels and political gridlock ahead of next year’s elections are weighing on the euro. Meanwhile, the dollar is finding renewed support from expectations of a tighter Federal Reserve policy and rising geopolitical uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve previously maintained interest rates in the 3.75%–4.00% range, with a 10-2 vote. The market currently assigns an approximately 80% probability to an interest rate hike in December. As long as these expectations hold, the dollar is likely to remain strong, keeping pressure on the EUR/USD pair, with the upcoming PCE data and the ECB’s decision serving as the next major catalysts. (srh)