Oil prices held steady after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington no longer requires a deal with Iran. Brent crude stood at US$95.76 per barrel, while WTI was at US$88.35 per barrel. This statement dampened hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough to resolve a conflict that has disrupted global energy markets.
Trump also directed Vice President JD Vance to shift focus away from negotiations with Tehran and toward domestic issues. This stance has cast further uncertainty on the prospect of a resolution, while maintaining geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, Brent remains on track for its second consecutive weekly decline, following a six-month high reached in late October. The resumption of oil flows from the Middle East and earlier optimism regarding a potential end to the conflict had previously exerted downward pressure on prices.
From a fundamental perspective, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the oil market will see a surplus this quarter—the first since the conflict began. The IEA also noted a slowdown in oil consumption this year, with growth in demand for transportation fuels expected to be limited next year.
However, the risk of supply disruptions remains a concern. Throughout October, 36 attacks on commercial vessels were recorded in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. These ongoing attacks mean that energy shipping routes remain vulnerable to disruption.
Meanwhile, U.S. government data shows an increase in crude oil and petroleum product inventories over the past week, alongside record seasonal refinery activity. Conversely, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil processing facilities could potentially constrain the global supply of energy products.