Oil prices held at high levels during trading on Friday (November 13) after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington might not need a deal with Iran. Brent crude remained stable at around US$96 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded above US$89 per barrel, following a sharp rally earlier in the session.
Trump’s remarks dampened hopes for a swift diplomatic breakthrough to end the conflict in the Middle East. This has reignited geopolitical risk premiums, particularly following reports of meetings between Israeli intelligence officials and the U.S. government regarding developments in the conflict involving Iran.
Nevertheless, Brent is still on track for its second consecutive weekly decline. Pressure stems from increased supply from the Middle East, as well as a projection from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the oil market could see a surplus this quarter—the first such occurrence since the conflict began.
Supply risks remain elevated as attacks on commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman persist. Uncertainty surrounding these strategic shipping lanes has kept a risk premium embedded in oil prices.
From a fundamental perspective, rising U.S. inventories of crude oil and petroleum products have acted as an additional bearish factor. However, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities and ongoing tensions in the Middle East have prevented prices from falling further.