Global oil prices plummeted during trading on Wednesday (November 4, 2026), following U.S. midterm election results that fueled expectations that President Donald Trump’s administration would face political pressure to end the conflict with Iran.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped 8.3% to close at US$88.12 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 8.7% to US$94.62 per barrel. This decline reflects a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, as investors began to factor in a potential shift in Washington’s policy regarding the war in the Middle East.
Market sentiment shifted further after U.S. Vice President JD Vance identified the war with Iran as a primary reason for the Republican Party’s defeat in the midterm elections. The Democratic Party secured a majority in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate, paving the way for increased scrutiny of the Trump administration’s military policies and budget. Vance suggested that the conflict with Iran had eroded political support for the Republican Party, largely due to a surge in gasoline and diesel prices that exacerbated the cost-of-living crisis for the public. Meanwhile, Trump previously acknowledged that the war had influenced the election outcome, though he continued to defend his administration’s decisions regarding the conflict.
Market participants now anticipate that the change in the balance of power within Congress could increase pressure on Washington to prioritize a diplomatic resolution. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the election results have raised expectations that Trump might be more open to reaching an agreement with Iran.
Trump’s earlier statement—indicating there were no immediate plans for new attacks—further reinforced this sentiment. Nevertheless, there is no certainty that the conflict will end; consequently, oil prices remain susceptible to volatility should peace talks encounter obstacles or if military tensions escalate.
Source: Newsmaker.id