Global oil prices showed volatility during Wednesday’s trading session (November 4, 2026). In Asian markets, Brent crude traded around the US$104 mark following two consecutive days of declines. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.5% to US$96.58 per barrel, while Brent had previously closed down 1.1% at US$103.60 per barrel. This price instability reflects investor caution regarding the ongoing peace negotiations between the United States (U.S.) and Iran, which continue to yield mixed signals.
Diplomatic efforts remain underway, with Washington and Tehran reportedly reviewing new proposals put forward by mediators to resolve the conflict. However, an Iranian national security official indicated that the U.S. response thus far has been unsatisfactory. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that Washington has no immediate plans for further attacks on Iran, though military readiness is being maintained. While this has provided some relief to the market, it has failed to dispel uncertainty regarding the potential for a peace agreement.
Geopolitical tensions remain the primary driver of oil prices, as the conflict in the Middle East enters its ninth month. Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the threat of further military operations have disrupted energy distribution from the Persian Gulf region. Throughout 2026, Brent crude prices have surged by more than 70% due to concerns over global supply. Rising energy costs have also intensified inflationary pressures—including within the U.S.—becoming a key issue during the midterm elections held on Tuesday.
On the supply side, the recovery of oil exports from the Middle East has begun to exert downward pressure on prices. Saudi Aramco plans to maximize production in the current quarter, with oil shipments now nearing pre-war levels. This suggests that, in some markets, short-term supply is beginning to outpace demand. However, a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API)—indicating a 5.3 million-barrel decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week—could provide support for prices, should this be confirmed by official U.S. government data.
Solidnews notes that current oil price movements reflect a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and the recovery of global supply. Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations leaves the door open for a potential price surge should tensions escalate once again. Conversely, diplomatic progress and increased oil exports from the Middle East could serve to cap any price gains. In the near term, investor attention will be focused on the progress of negotiations between the two nations and official U.S. oil inventory data to determine the next market direction.