Oil prices remained relatively stable during Monday’s trading (Nov 9), with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around US$90.27 per barrel and Brent holding at approximately US$96.56 per barrel. The market responded to statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested that the likelihood of further attacks against Iran has diminished.
Trump indicated that it is increasingly unlikely for Washington to launch new strikes, provided that negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict continue to show progress. These remarks have fueled hopes for de-escalation, even though no comprehensive agreement has yet been reached between the U.S. and Iran.
Nevertheless, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz continue to be a concern; as this region serves as a vital artery for global oil distribution, even minor disruptions could significantly impact market sentiment.
Analysts suggest that the market is currently leaning toward a relatively optimistic de-escalation scenario. However, the potential for renewed escalation remains, should negotiations falter or tensions between Washington and Tehran flare up once again.
On the supply side, JPMorgan reports that the global oil market has returned to a surplus, driven by a recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows, increased production elsewhere, and weakening demand. The surplus is estimated to have reached 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
Meanwhile, the Houthi group has claimed responsibility for an attack on a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh on Sunday. Although there were no casualties, the incident underscores that security risks in the region remain high—a factor likely to sustain significant volatility in oil prices.