Solid Gold Berjangka – Oil prices weakened during Monday’s trading session (November 9) after U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of new attacks against Iran. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at approximately US$91.05 per barrel, while Brent stood at around US$97.48 per barrel.
Trump indicated that the prospect of further U.S. strikes on Iran is low, provided that negotiations aimed at ending the conflict continue to show progress. This statement led the market to factor in a scenario of broader de-escalation.
Nevertheless, supply risks have not entirely dissipated. Attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz persist, keeping this critical global oil distribution artery a primary concern for market participants.
Downward pressure on oil prices is also stemming from rising global supply. JPMorgan estimates that the oil surplus reached 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain elevated; the Houthi group has claimed responsibility for an attack on Saudi Aramco’s offices in Riyadh, and a refinery in Kirishi, Russia, was reportedly set ablaze following a Ukrainian drone strike.
Given the interplay between diplomatic optimism and the risk of supply disruptions, oil prices are expected to remain volatile. The market will continue to closely monitor developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, security in the Strait of Hormuz, and potential disruptions to energy facilities across the Middle East and Russia. (srh)